Once a market starts moving in a single direction for a period of years the public tends to develop a sense that it will continue in that direction ad infinitum or at least for many more years. The press often caters to this perception by publishing things and highlighting sensational aspects that seem to validate this belief. This is the case with Miami real estate and it presents a tremendous opportunity as we enter in the final stages of this clearance sale of distressed properties.

As expected, the dollar has once again begun to show signs of serious strain against a variety of measures including gold which once again recently passed the $1000 mark. There has still been no responsible plan for confronting the dramatically increasing structural deficits. The only plan has been to print more and spend more.  In [...]

Finally, after several years of denial, real estate stakeholders in the many hard-hit areas have finally come to the breaking point. Distressed sales continue to be the driving force in most regions, particularly, South Florida, California, Arizona, and Nevada. Sellers of residential properties are trying desperately to remain competitive amid a flood of units for sale. According to Metrostudy, a national housing research firm, the inventory level of unsold condos in South Florida represent a 31 month supply. Many people think that a two to four month supply represents an equilibrium with demand. Even in the face of these extreme conditions, there are some signs of light.

The economic climate of 2009 will be very tough, especially for the average consumer. The U.S. and European consumers are officially tapped out. Retailers are barely clinging to life, fighting each other to be the last one standing. While 2008 hit the financial markets, 2009 will be much more visible and hit closer to home [...]

It has been about one and a half years since I posted my first commentary and since then I have added many new people to the email list. I am proud of my public predictions up until this point. Risking your reputation is one of the most difficult things one can do. For those of [...]

It is certainly feels like the panic selling typical of capitulation at this point, at least for the financial industry. However, I foresee more pain in the horizon. When you have financial institutions using so much leverage to support depreciating and overvalued assets, it is difficult to see the light at the end of the [...]

With oil seemingly headed straight for Goldman Sachs’ $150 new price target, there is lively debate going on right now whether or not commodities as a whole are in a speculative bubble. We may very well be at the beginning stages of a bubble much like the U.S. housing market was in a bubble during [...]

“Inflation is back!” that’s what the headlines are starting to say and what I have been predicting for some time. Why is it back? The all mighty U.S. economy is slowing and the E.U. is also so how could we be in an inflationary environment? First of all, this should not be a shock to [...]

What is going on with the real estate market in the U.S.? How bad will it get? When is it time to jump back in? Should sellers wait it out? These are questions frequently posed to me. My answers often disappoint people, which is no fun but I am not one to say what I [...]

The Federal Reserve is one of the world’s most influential institutions. Its mandates are to maintain price stability, ensure the smooth flow of money, and act as lender of last resort in face of severe financial crisis. It seems that the the Federal Reserve has a strong inflationary bias and it has failed over the [...]

Clearly, we are at the early stages of a very significant credit crunch that will need to naturally work itself out if we are to emerge on more stable economic footing. Despite the Federal Reserve and the ECB having significant ammunition to help improve liquidity, such measures will be rather superficial in light of how [...]

Where are we at now? We are enjoying unprecedented global economic growth and the world is still flush with liquidity. There is a lot of cash out there looking for a home and enormous assets are being traded like baseball cards in 4th grade homeroom. The liquidity has been fueled primarily by low interest rates. [...]